Open-access Validation of enteric methane emissions by cattle estimated from mathematical models using data from in vivo experiments

ABSTRACT.

Several authors have developed equations to estimate methane (CH4) emissions by cattle according to variables such as dry matter and nutrient intake, live weight, or weight gain. Mathematical models using these variables show a large variability of results, being necessary to identify those which provide more precise and accurate predictions. For this reason, the objective of this study was to validate enteric CH4 emissions estimated from mathematical models through a comparison with a database of CH4 emissions obtained from cattle experiments carried out in tropical regions. A database of 495 individual cattle CH4 emissions data (g day-1) obtained from 19 studies in three tropical Latin American countries was built for this study. Results showed that mathematical models developed for cattle in tropical production systems overestimated CH4 emissions when they were compared with our database. The mathematical model with higher precision and accuracy was the one that included dry matter intake and organic matter digestibility in the equation (Equation 7. R2=0.34, Cb=0.94, CCC=0.55, RMSE=60.8%, r=0.58), followed by models that included neutral detergent fiber intake data (Equation 5). Our data did not show a relationship between CH4 emissions and gross energy intake or live weight.

Keywords:
greenhouse gases; modeling; tropical livestock

Introduction

The livestock sector is one of the largest contributors to methane (CH4) emissions, mainly produced through the anaerobic fermentative processes in the rumen. Several methodologies can be used to measure these emissions e.g., laboratory techniques, tracers, and sensors (Hammond et al., 2016). Additionally, mathematical models can be useful when measurements are not feasible due to technical or resource constraints (Hristov et al., 2018; Muñoz-Tamayo et al., 2022; Tedeschi et al., 2022). During the last decades, several equations have been developed by various authors to estimate CH4 emissions from dry matter and nutrient intake or variables such as body weight or rate of weight gain (Johnson & Johnson, 1995; Ellis et al., 2007; Ku-Vera et al., 2018; Congio et al., 2023). However, most of them were developed using global information available that is not necessarily applicable at a regional level, generating uncertainty in the results when they are used in a specific context.

For this reason, the present study was aimed to validate enteric CH4 emissions estimated through mathematical models with a database of CH4 emissions obtained from cattle experiments carried out in tropical regions of Latin America. This information could be useful to governmental and environmental agencies to estimate enteric CH4 emissions in tropical regions to strengthen their commitments to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions.

Materials and methods

Data collection

Data from in vivo experiments was obtained from 19 studies conducted in three tropical Latin American countries (7 unpublished, 12 published: Molina-Botero et al., 2015; Molina-Botero Angarita, Mayorga, Chará, & Barahona-Rosales, 2016; Arceo-Castillo et al., 2017; Valencia-Salazar et al., 2018; Molina-Botero et al., 2019a; 2019b; Gaviria-Uribe et al., 2020; Montoya-Flores et al., 2020; Díaz-Céspedes, Hernández-Guevara, & Gómez, 2021; Congio et al., 2021; Jiménez-Ocampo et al., 2021; 2022): Mexico (n=182 from 12 studies), Colombia (n=165 from 5 studies) and Peru (n=148 from 2 studies). Four different techniques to measure CH4 emissions were used in these studies: sulfur hexafluoride (n=172), open-circuit respiration chambers (n=158), laser CH4 detector (n=123), and polytunnel (n=42).

As a result, a database containing 495 individual cattle CH4 measurement data (g/d) was generated. From this total, two-thirds of the data corresponded to growing females (n=312) and one-third from males (n=183), in the growing (n=94.1%) or finishing stage (n=5.1%) (Table 1.). Cattle breeds considered in this study were: Blanco Orejinegro (n=70), Brahman (n= 160), Romosinuano (n=8), Lucerna (n=8), and crossbreeds such as Brahman x Angus (n=25), Brahman x Holstein (n=156), Brahman x Romosinuano (n= 36), and Brown Swiss x Criollo (n=27).

Diets used in the studies were mainly based on tropical grasses (≥ 90% of the diet) such as Urochloa brizantha cv. Mombasa, U. decumbens cv. Basilisk, U. hybrid cv. Cayman-CIAT BR02/1752, Dichanthium aristatum (Poiret) C. E. Hubbard, Pennisetum purpureum schumach, Cenchrus clandestinus, Panicum maximum cv. Sabanera, Megathyrsus maximus cv. Mombasa, Cynodon nlemfuensis, U. ruziziensis cv. Ruziziensis, U. brizanta cv. Marandu, U. arrecta (Hack. Ex T. Durand & Schinz) Stent (Missouri Botanical Garden), U. mutica (Forssk.) Stapf, Megathyrsus maximus (Jacq.), Paspalum sp, Cynodon dactylon (Bermudagrass), and Echinochloa polystachya (Kunth) Hitch.

Data containing additives like nitrate, tannins, saponins, and lipid supplements in the diets were removed from the database, as they may affect the prediction of CH4 production. The chemical composition of diets from cattle experiments presented on average the following values: 146 (±183) g of crude protein per kg of dry matter (DM), 632 (±80) g of neutral detergent fiber per kg of DM, 357 (±56) g of acid detergent fiber per kg of DM, 17.5 MJ gross energy kg DM-1. The digestibility of organic matter was 594 g kg-1 (Table 1).

Table 1
Descriptive statistics of animal diets, nutrient intake, and CH4 emission from 19 studies conducted in tropical Latin American countries.

Mathematical models

A total of 53 equations were selected to estimate CH4 emissions (Table 2). Models developed for dairy cattle in the lactation phase were not considered for this study. Mathematical models took into account information related to daily weight gain (kg day-1), body weight (kg), dry and organic matter intake (g kg DM-1), nutrient intake (protein, neutral detergent fiber, acid detergent fiber, ether extract, g kg DM-1), gross energy intake (MJ kg DMI-1), and dry matter digestibility (%). Nine models were discarded because they did not consider variables measured in the studies we were evaluating or because they were part of the original data set (Ku-Vera et al., 2018; Gaviria-Uribe et al., 2020).

Table 2
List of equations used to predict methane production in cattle.

Data analysis

Inconsistent data (outliers) was deleted before analysis. Then, CH4 emissions were estimated based on mathematical models found in the literature shown in Table 2. Next, a comparison between CH4 data (g/d) obtained from in vivo experiments (observed data) and data estimated from published models (Table 2) was performed through statistical calculations, including average values, standard deviation, mean, concordance correlation coefficients (CCC), mean squared prediction error (MSPE), errors in central tendency (ECT), errors due to regression (ER), and errors due to disturbances (ED), among others. Total MSPE values, determined as the sum of ECT, ER, and ED (Bibby & Toutenburg, 1977), were calculated as follows:

Total MSPE=ECT+ER+ED

ECT=(P -O) 2

ER=(S p -r x S o ) 2

ED=(1-r 2 ) x S 0 2

RMSPE= √MSPE

where:

P and O are the estimated and observed CH4 parameter means,

Sp is the SD of the estimated values,

So is the SD of the observed values and

r is the Pearson correlation coefficient. ECT, ER, and ED were expressed as a percentage of total MSPE (Kaewpila & Sommart, 2016). RMSPE: root-mean-square prediction error.

The CCC to evaluate the accuracy and prediction precision of a model (Lin, 1989) was calculated as follows:

CCC=r × C b

C b = 2/((S o /S p )+(1/(S o /S p ))+μ 2 )

μ= ((O- P))/√(S o x S p )

where:

Cb is the bias correction factor (range = 0-1, perfect score = 1) that measures accuracy. The CCC is a metric that accounts for both precision and accuracy, and values closer to 1 indicate better model performance (Tedeschi, 2006). This r measures accuracy and μ is a measure of location offset with respect to the scale (range = negative-positive infinity, perfect score = 0). A positive value of μ indicates under-accuracy, while a negative one indicates over-accuracy (Kebreab, Johnson, Archibeque, Pape, & Wirth, 2008).

Results and discussion

Figure 1 shows values of in vivo experiments (black) obtained in the measurements of CH4 emissions in tropical conditions (n=497) and values predicted by mathematical models using variables such as body weight, nutrient and gross energy intake, and apparent digestibility of the diet. On average, the CH4 production per animal was 191 (±71) g day-1. This value is equivalent to obtaining a CH4 conversion factor (Ym) of 8.34 (±5) %.

Estimation models for enteric CH4 emission were developed using body weight, intakes of DM, nutrients (NDF, ADF, and CP), gross energy (GE), and dietary composition of nutrients (CP, NDF, ADF) as predictors (Table 3). In general, values of the bias correction factor (Cb) were positive in all models (between 0.4 and 4.3), which suggests that there was an overestimation. These values agree with studies reported by Hegarty (2004) and Patra (2017). Hegarty (2004) stated that the estimation of CH4 production by statistical models is more precise when there are low levels of CH4 production in animals. In contrast, in conditions of high levels of CH4 production, other physiological and microbiological factors may affect the result in addition to nutrient intakes, such as rumen volume and fermentation parameters.

The coefficient of determination (R2) observed was low (R2=0.07 on average). In contrast, the RMSPE parameter was high (80% on average) compared to other authors such as Niu et al., (2018). This is perhaps because the data set used in the present study was constructed based on a wide range of experiments developed in three countries with different techniques and cattle breeds, as shown by Cottle and Eckard (2018) in their meta-analysis.

Figure 1
Methane emissions from observed and model-estimated data.

The mathematical model with higher precision and accuracy compared to the data obtained in the experiments was the one that included variables such as dry matter intake and organic matter digestibility (Equation 7. R 2=0.34, Cb=0.94, CCC=0.55, RMSE=60.8%, r=0.58. Eugène et al. (2019) developed a robust equation for methane prediction by incorporating digestible organic matter intake (DOMI) for the Tier 3 cattle inventory in France. Sauvant and Nozière (2016) followed models that included neutral detergent fiber intake data (Equation 5. Ellis et al., 2007). This collection of data did not show a relationship between CH4 emissions and gross energy intake plus body weight. This result could be verified in Equation 35 and 36, which included these two variables and presented the lowest values of the CCC parameter. Similar results were reported by Pires Sobrinho et al. (2019) in their work with Nellore cattle (392 ± 27 days of age) in the tropics; however, it is different from what was reported by Yan, Agnew, Gordon, and Porter (2000), who found an R2 of 0.85 between CH4 and GE intake.

Table 3
Summary statistics for methane prediction using the complete dataset of in vivo experiments.

Conclusion

Methane production per animal was on average 191 (±74) g day-1, which is equivalent to a Ym of 8.34 (±5) %. The current validation showed that the prediction capabilities of the models used are yet to be improved. Concerning the mathematical models developed for cattle in tropical production systems, it can be concluded that they overestimated CH4 emissions when they were compared with the compiled database. The mathematical model with higher precision and accuracy included dry matter intake and organic matter digestibility in the equation ([7.14+0.22 x dOM] x DMI), followed by models that included neutral detergent fiber intake data ([5.58+0.848 x NFDI]). The analysis of the data did not show any relationship between CH4 emissions and gross energy intake or body weight.

Acknowledgements

The authors would like to acknowledge the financial support received from the regional CLIMAT-AmSud program through the LCL-RN project, code 21-CLIMAT-09 and to Iberoamerican program for science and technology CYTED activity Low carbon livestock network. In addition, this research also received financial resources from the National Program for Scientific Research and Advanced Studies - (PROCIENCIA, Spanish acronym), from its project: Interinstitutional Alliances for Doctoral Programs - Stage II, “Nutrition”, Contract N° PE501084302-2023-PROCIENCIA-BM. The authors thank Eduardo Fuentes-Navarro, Andrea Milena Sierra-Alarcón, Ronnal Ortiz-Cuadros, Sara Valencia-Salazar, Rafael Jiménez-Ocampo and Xiomara Gaviria-Uribe for their contribution with data and writing of this article.

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Publication Dates

  • Publication in this collection
    28 Feb 2025
  • Date of issue
    2025

History

  • Received
    18 Aug 2023
  • Accepted
    16 Apr 2024
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